Macro Monitor Guide: Understanding Inflation, Fed Policy and Gold Drivers

The Macro Monitor is the window to the global economy on GoldKurs.ch. It summarises on one page what professional investors would normally have to gather from dozens of sources. This guide explains each indicator and its specific influence on gold.

US Real Interest Rates (10-Year TIPS)

The single most important indicator for gold. The 10-year TIPS yield measures the real US interest rate after inflation. Traffic light green (good for gold): TIPS yield below 0.5% or falling. Traffic light red (bad for gold): TIPS yield above 2% or rising sharply. Current value: 1.6% (yellow — neutral).

Federal Funds Rate vs. Market Expectations

Shows the current Fed key rate and the future steps priced in by the market (via Fed Funds Futures). If the market expects more cuts than the Fed Dot Plot shows — bullish for gold. If the Fed is more hawkish than expected — bearish for gold.

US CPI Inflation

High inflation with negative real interest rates is bullish for gold. High inflation that forces the Fed to raise rates is short-term bearish. Pay attention to the core rate (Core CPI, excluding energy and food) — this has more influence on Fed decisions.

M2 Money Supply USA

Money supply growth shows how aggressively the central bank is supplying the economy with liquidity. Strong M2 growth (above 5% YoY) is long-term bullish for gold, as it dilutes the purchasing power of the dollar.

DXY Dollar Index

A falling Dollar Index is a direct tailwind for gold. The Macro Monitor shows the DXY with a 20-day trend. If the dollar weakens over several weeks, this significantly amplifies gold demand from non-dollar economies.

Crude Oil (WTI/Brent)

Oil is a leading indicator for global economic activity and inflation. Sharply rising oil increases inflation expectations, which indirectly supports gold. An oil price collapse often signals recession fears — gold then reacts ambivalently (flight to safe haven vs. risk-aversion selling).