The technical analysis of gold following the all-time high of 5,595 USD on January 29, 2026 and the subsequent correction to approximately 4,549 USD in May provides important reference points. The overarching trend question is clear: the uptrend is intact. The relevant question is whether the correction has run its course.
Primary Trend: Bullish Since 2018
The primary uptrend is intact. The trendline from the December 2015 low (1,045 USD) currently runs at approximately 3,200 USD — well below the current price. The uptrend from the Covid low (March 2020, approx. 1,470 USD) lies at around 3,600 USD. Gold trades clearly above both trendlines.
Post-ATH Correction: Fibonacci Analysis
The move from approximately 4,332 USD (start of 2026) to 5,595 USD (ATH January 28) spans roughly 1,263 USD. The classical Fibonacci retracement levels of this move:
- 23.6% retracement: approx. 4,676 USD — current consolidation zone, strong support
- 38.2% retracement: approx. 4,288 USD — next major support
- 50% retracement: approx. 3,975 USD — deep but still bull-market-conforming correction
The current price level near 4,549 USD sits close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement — the classic first support area after a rally.
Key Support Zones
- 4,500–4,676 USD: Fibonacci 23.6%, current consolidation level
- 4,350–4,400 USD: 50-day MA and former resistance, now support
- 4,100–4,150 USD: 200-day MA — most important long-term trend indicator
- 3,800–3,850 USD: Previous breakout zone (October 2025)
Resistance Zones
- 4,780 USD: April interim high after the first pullback
- 5,000 USD: Psychological round number
- 5,595 USD: All-time high — will initially serve as resistance on the next rally
RSI and MACD: Conditions Favour Buyers
Daily RSI is around 42 — neutral to mildly oversold. Weekly RSI is around 62 — bullish and not extended. Daily MACD shows a negative cross (short-term bearish), but weekly MACD remains positive. The picture is consistent with a consolidation phase, not a trend reversal.
Conclusion: Consolidation at Strong Support
Gold is in a technically healthy consolidation phase after the all-time high. The first Fibonacci retracement near 4,676 USD offers solid support. As long as gold trades above the 200-day MA (approx. 4,100 USD), the primary uptrend remains intact.
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